Epidemiology & Disease Prevention - Cerro Gordo County Department of Public Health

Disease Prevention

Pandemic Flu: Frequently Asked Questions FAQ Key

Effects of Pandemic

How would pandemic flu affect communities and businesses?
If a severe influenza pandemic occurs, many people could become sick at the same time and would be unable to go to work. Many would stay at home to care for sick family members. Schools and businesses might close to try to prevent disease spread. Large group gatherings might be canceled. Public transportation might be scarce. These are examples of challenges that local communities, schools, civic organizations, and businesses will have to work together on to plan for a pandemic response.

Why are pandemics such dreaded events?
Influenza pandemics are remarkable events that can rapidly infect virtually all countries. Once international spread begins, pandemics are considered unstoppable, because the virus spreads very rapidly by coughing or sneezing. The fact that infected people can share the virus before symptoms appear adds to the risk of international spread via travelers.

The severity of disease and the number of deaths caused by a pandemic virus vary greatly, and cannot be known prior to the emergence of the virus. During past pandemics, attack rates reached 25-35% of the total population. Under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). Projections for a more virulent virus are much higher. The 1918 pandemic, which was uniquely severe, killed at least 40 million people. In the US, the mortality rate of people infected with the virus during that pandemic was around 2.5%.

During a severe pandemic, such as the one that occurred in 1918, there would be large surges in the numbers of people requiring or seeking medical or hospital treatment, temporarily overwhelming health services. High rates of worker absenteeism could also interrupt other essential services, such as law enforcement, transportation, and communications. Because populations will be fully susceptible to a pandemic virus, rates of illness could peak fairly rapidly within a given community. This means that local social and economic disruptions may be temporary. They may, however, be amplified in today's closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce.

What could happen to the community's essential services (e.g. electricity, food, water, etc.) during a pandemic?
An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Everyday life would be disrupted because so many people in so many places become seriously ill at the same time. Impacts can range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services such as public transportation and food delivery.

In addition, a substantial percentage of the world's population will require some form of medical care. Health care facilities can be overwhelmed, creating a shortage of hospital staff, beds, ventilators and other supplies. Non-traditional sites such as schools may need to be used for patient care to cope with demand.

What could happen to the community's work force during a pandemic?
In a severe pandemic, it is very possible that up to 40% of a business' or organization's workforce will be out sick or at home taking care of sick family members. It is also possible that a small percentage of this amount will be people who are healthy but who may be too frightened to venture out into public.

The numbers of healthcare workers and first responders available to work can be expected to be reduced as they will be at high risk of illness through exposure in the community and in health care settings, and some may have to miss work to care for ill family members.
Essential supplies, including medicine, may become unavailable during a pandemic. As part of effective planning, individuals and families should talk to their doctor about how to maintain adequate access to prescription medications.